There's a wonderful program, which I don't discuss in my book and I kind of regret not raising it by Philip Tettlock on super forecasters. What distinguishes those who get it right? And there's many answers to it. But often you don't just go if you got used to tools of rationality. We forget the bad gut. Excuse me, our bad intuitive calls. Even if we think we were pretty good at it, we're probably struggling with the size of the sample.