#25 – Julia Shvets on Overconfidence, Rank Incentives, and Lab vs Field Experiments
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The Theory of Baising Up Dating - Is There Any Overconfidence?
A third of managers were accurate about the quintile they would fall into. Just under a fifth of managers were under confident, so they were actually predicting a worse quintile than they ended up in. And almost half of managers were over confident,so they were predicting a better quintal than actual. By contrast, only ten % of managers thought they would come out in the bottom 20%.
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