Why markets underprice Fed cuts

In this conversation, Pascal Huegli and Vincent Deluard, a director of global macro strategy at StoneX, shares their insights on the current economic landscape, particularly focusing on inflation, asset allocation, and the implications of political pressures on the Federal Reserve. Deluard argues that inflation has not disappeared and discusses the potential for fiscal measures, such as 'Trump checks', to influence the economy. He emphasizes the importance of gold and Bitcoin as protective assets against inflation and financial repression, while also critiquing the reliability of consumer price index (CPI) data. The conversation delves into the complexities of the labor market, the political dynamics affecting monetary policy, and the historical context of central bank independence. Deluard also explores the recent trends in gold and Bitcoin investments, highlighting the central banks' increasing purchases of gold as a response to geopolitical tensions and the perceived instability of the dollar. He suggests that investors should consider a diversified approach, balancing traditional assets with cryptocurrencies, while remaining cautious of the potential for inflationary pressures to resurface. The episode concludes with a discussion on the evolving nature of state capitalism in the U.S. and its implications for market positioning. 

Chapters: 

00:00 Intro 

01:04 Introduction to Inflation and Economic Outlook 

06:29 The Role of Gold and Bitcoin in Inflationary Times 

10:21 Central Bank Independence and Political Pressures 

19:28 Government Spending and Market Dynamics 

32:20 Investing Strategies in an Inflationary Environment 

46:29 Global Macro Perspectives and Political Dynamics 

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