The Keys to Disciplined Basian Reasoning

Base rates matter, even in the presence of evidence about the case at hand. The combination of what you see and associative coherence tends to make us believe in the stories we spin for ourselves. When the evidence is weak, one should stick with the base rates. I know this report is absolutely damning, and it may be based on solid evdence, but how sure are we? We must allow for that uncertainty in our thinking. This start up looks as if it could not fail, but the base rate of success in the industry is extremely low. How much solid evidence is there? They keep making the same mistake predicting rare events from weak evidence. It came as a shock to