#58 – Carl Robichaud on Reducing the Risks of Nuclear War
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Putin Miscalculated the Level of Resoluteness
I think Putin miscalculated here about the West's response to Ukraine because he believed that the West would see how much more important Ukraine is to Russia than it is to the West. And I think he was manipulating this kind of asymmetric stakes in a way to keep the West out of the war. We don't see NATO troops on the ground and we see the West limiting its commitment to Ukraine in some important ways. But I think that he miscalculated the level of resolve even from countries like Germany that are deeply paired with Russia economically.Germany has been willing to pay a high price in order to continue to support Ukraine throughout this crisis. As we know, sometimes deals go wrong.
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