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Robin Hanson: How Global Elites Manufactured Stagnation and How We Escape
From the New World
Prediction Markets
i don't enecessarily see that it's completely a flaw, because those correlations are kind of baked into it. T, if you have a prediction market, you assume that's te information people are operating off of. So they're not actuallye making a mistake here. i mean, once you realize how most actual decision making happens, you realize this is a ubiquitous problem in all the other mechanisms we use for making decision making. Yes, ah, your committees, or your advisers, whatever they ve,. They also have problems disentangling the direction of causation and their advice - so whatever incentives you're giving them to make good decisions can also be polluted by these problems.
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