#25 – Julia Shvets on Overconfidence, Rank Incentives, and Lab vs Field Experiments
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Are You Using Motivated Beliefs?
People exaggerate how they performed in the last competition in their head. As you look at people who didn't do so well, you get more and more errors. And these errors are predominantly in one direction. But that's not quite enough us to say that motivated beliefs are at work. What we need is a link at an individual level between overconfident predictions and selective, rosy memories of the past.
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