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THINKING FAST AND SLOW - Commented Book
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A Defence of Extreme Predictions
i introduced tom w earlier to illustrate predictions of discreet outcomes, such as field of specialization or success in an examination. I also described a procedure that counters the common biases of discreet prediction and neglect of base rates. The two procedures are intended to address the same bias, intuitive predictions tend to be over confident and overly extreme.
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