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#25 – Julia Shvets on Overconfidence, Rank Incentives, and Lab vs Field Experiments

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Is Over Confidence a Cognitive Mistake?

Is over confidence rational in a narrow sense, but kind of self serving, or rational in some kind of broad, wabbly sense? That's the million dollar question. Does that fact imply that there is somehow demand for overconfidence on our part? And this is exactly what a paper by roland benabout and jean tyrol is about,. They study over confidence as an example of what they call multivated beliefs.

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