538’s New Forecast Says The Election Is A Toss-Up
FiveThirtyEight Politics
Election Forecasting and Model Methodology
The chapter covers the intricacies of election forecasting, including the importance of using quantitative models that incorporate both polling data and fundamentals. It discusses the evolution of elections over the past 75 years, the challenges of predicting outcomes in a changing political landscape, and the significance of economic indicators in forecasting election results. The chapter also explores how approval ratings and partisan affiliations can influence voter behavior and election outcomes.
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