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5min chapter
Robin Hanson: How Global Elites Manufactured Stagnation and How We Escape
From the New World
Choosing the Best Option in the Market
When the chance is five %, ah, you'll have that delution of incentive relative to if it was a hundred%. And so you will expect more attention and energy to go to the prices which have higher chances of being realized. But there'll still be some energy going to the others. It'll just be they'll need a larger mis pricing before they think they see a propered opportunity for influence. So we should expect larger errors in estimates about the consequences of unlikely choices. Now that means of course, if you have a large error in something, that large error could suggest that that's a really good decision to make.
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