#25 – Julia Shvets on Overconfidence, Rank Incentives, and Lab vs Field Experiments
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Are You Over Confident About Your Island?
You've never seen anything else, and youe been asked, how does your island rank in terms of production of cocoanuts relative to all other islands in the world? But you just really don't know, so you might give a random answer. And there a good chance that this answer may overstate your island's true rank. We would expect rational to use the information to what economists would call abda their beliefs and converge on the true answer. So there what appears like over confidence doesn't actually violate any er information rational information processing assumption. Y, thats veary intresting. I guess i didn't consider it could arrive at a false, over confident belief by a more
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