
#76 (Bonus) - Is P(doom) meaningful? Debating epistemology (w/ Liron Shapira)
Increments
Exploring Expected Value and Prediction Markets
This chapter examines the intricacies of expected value calculations, emphasizing the importance of data collection and statistical models in making informed decisions. The conversation covers the role of prediction markets in forecasting events like elections, analyzing the effectiveness of polling data versus subjective assessments. Additionally, it highlights the philosophical implications of Bayesian statistics and the psychology behind individual betting behaviors within these markets.
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