Four: Spencer Greenberg on the scientific approach to solving difficult everyday questions
Effective Altruism: An Introduction – 80,000 Hours
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How to Estimate the Odds of a Trump Being Reelected?
We have the best modelling for and the best probability judgments for all kind of sports results and the weather. But we do have prediction markets, which are ninteresting potential priors. Yeit's interesting that the rapidity matters so much, because it reduces the probability of a false positive quite a lot. So sot i estimate, o think so a, the odds of a, trump being re elected, say so. And th that's what i usually do myself.
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