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Decision-Making Under Uncertainty and Entrepreneurship (with Miles Lasater)
Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg
Can You Really Get Better at Probabilistic Estimates?
I think people really can be trained in this skill and I think that's a surprising fact. We actually built a series of tools to help people do this. One is called common misconceptions test where you have to bet points based on how confident you are that you're right on each of them. And then we have a more advanced tool to follow up on that called calibrate your judgment, which allows you to practice on thousands of questions.
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