Boosting the Use of Base Rate Information in the Tom W Problem

People without training in statistics are quite capable of using bass rates in redictions under some conditions. In the first version of the tom w problem, which has no information about him, it is obvious to everyone that the probability of tom w's being in a particular field is simply the base rate frequency of enrolment in that field. But concern for base rates evidently disappears as soon as tom w's personality is described. And if you must guess whether a woman who is described as a shy poetry lover studies chinese literature or business administration, you should opt for the latter option.