Who Predicted 2022?
Astral Codex Ten Podcast
00:00
The ACX Prediction Contest
In a counterfactual world where Russia didn't invade Ukraine, I think my predictions would have been much worse than the average entrant. Because of this, I put predictions for these questions that were higher than I'd expect in isolation. Sheer luck, for instance, I'd talk to some people from the Philippines about Bang-Bong Marcos a few days before entering the competition and was surprised by how enthusiastic they were about him. That's the end of the footnote after the first place winner.
Transcript
Play full episode
