Prediction markets as forecasting tools

Vlad Tenev built Robinhood by breaking every rule Wall Street wrote: zero commissions when competitors charged $10, mobile-first when "serious" investors demanded desktop, a brand that made finance feel like rebellion instead of a club you'd never join.

By 2021 they'd forced every major brokerage to slash fees and attracted millions who'd never owned a stock, but then GameStop happened: trading restrictions during the meme stock frenzy triggered congressional hearings, user fury, and a two-year brand crisis that nearly buried them despite the real culprit being antiquated clearing mechanics no one understood. 

Now Tenev's pushing an even more radical vision—tokenizing private company shares so retail investors can own stakes in AI giants before IPO, turning prediction markets into "truth machines" that beat polls and pundits, and building what he calls the end of financial nihilism: a platform where your seventy-year-old parents and your Gen Z cousin both manage everything from retirement accounts to election bets in one place.

The question isn't whether traditional finance survives this; it's whether Robinhood can move fast enough to own the entire wealth transfer before someone else does.

Timestamps:

0:00 - Introduction
3:52 - Financial Relationships vs. Pinterest Boards: The Higher Bar
5:27 - Building in a Regulatory Catch-22
7:53 - Three Simultaneous Contrarian Bets
12:15 - From Institutional HFT to Retail Revolution
17:40 - January 28th: The Day Trust Died
27:40 - “Simple Lie More Powerful Than Complicated Truth”
30:02 - Tokenization: The Antidote to T+1 Settlement
32:52 - IPO Access: From Asking For Favors to Everyone Wanting In
39:22 - “Series D Was Called an IPO”
43:06 - WTF Happened in 1971?
47:42 - Going Broad While Going Deep
53:26 - The $120 Trillion Wealth Transfer
58:16 - Debunking “Financial Nihilism”
58:40 - “Speculation Is Critical For Functioning Markets”

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

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