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#140 Classic episode – Bear Braumoeller on the case that war isn’t in decline

80,000 Hours Podcast

CHAPTER

Analyzing War Patterns: Trends and Challenges

This chapter explores the complexities of war initiation patterns from 1815 to the present, focusing on data interpretation challenges and trends in global conflict. It highlights the significant decline in war initiation rates post-Cold War and examines the autocorrelation effects of past conflicts on future wars. The discussion includes insights on war lethality trends and the distinctions between different types of wars, all while emphasizing the limitations of traditional statistical models in understanding these dynamics.

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