Rocket Man
Risk of Ruin
The Mispricing of Elon Musk
I think it's fine to say that you looked at the odds of the legal case and they heavily favored Twitter. So the most likely outcome is that Elon will have to close. But markets are known to be mostly efficient. They don't just hand out free money. Even if you came to the conclusion that had quite a positive expected value, there was the portfolio management difficulty of it. If there were 10,000 opportunities like this, you could have your winners pay for your losers with plenty left over.
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