2min chapter

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Stephen Grugett (Manifold Markets Founder) - Predictions Markets & Revolutionizing Governance

Dwarkesh Podcast

CHAPTER

What Are Your Thoughts on Prediction Markets?

Sceptical of prediction markets when we're talking about questions that resolve over a long period of ime, and which there's no good base rate for. One example would be, what are the odds of catastrophic a, i, by late 20 30? Which i'm sure is a question on your websit. And i'm not sure how much crudence i put into the a prediction on this question.

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