Dwarkesh Podcast Stephen Grugett (Manifold Markets Founder) - Predictions Markets & Revolutionizing Governance
May 5, 2022
Stephen Grugett, cofounder of Manifold Markets, discusses how prediction markets can revolutionize governance. He shares insights on the growing interest from Wall Street in predicting talent and collaboration with journalism. Grugett explores the future of monetary gains, including cryptocurrency integration, while tackling usability challenges. He also addresses managerial hesitance in adopting these systems and the unique applications of prediction markets for strategic decision-making, encouraging creativity and engagement among users.
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Successful Prediction Example
- Manifold Market's top predictor successfully predicted the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
- This demonstrates the potential for identifying skilled forecasters on the platform.
Improving Predictions
- To improve predictions, clearly define your views and make numerical predictions.
- Record and review your predictions to refine your understanding of the world.
Resistance to Truth
- Companies avoid internal prediction markets because they often don't want to know the true answers.
- This resistance is especially strong from managers who don't want negative feedback on their chosen direction.