Dwarkesh Podcast

Stephen Grugett (Manifold Markets Founder) - Predictions Markets & Revolutionizing Governance

May 5, 2022

Stephen Grugett, cofounder of Manifold Markets, discusses how prediction markets can revolutionize governance. He shares insights on the growing interest from Wall Street in predicting talent and collaboration with journalism. Grugett explores the future of monetary gains, including cryptocurrency integration, while tackling usability challenges. He also addresses managerial hesitance in adopting these systems and the unique applications of prediction markets for strategic decision-making, encouraging creativity and engagement among users.

50:53

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Episode guests

Stephen Grugett

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Episode notes

Intro

3min

Predicting the Future: Talent in Prediction Markets

4min

Exploring the Future of Monetary Gains in Prediction Markets

2min

Navigating Prediction Markets: Trust, Challenges, and Future Insights

18min

Navigating Prediction Markets

16min

Harnessing Prediction Markets for Strategic Decisions

6min

Innovative Uses of Prediction Markets

3min

Stephen Grugett is a cofounder of Manifold Markets, where anyone can create a prediction market. We discuss how prediction markets can change how countries and companies make important decisions.

Manifold Markets: https://manifold.markets/

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Timestamps:

(0:00:00) - Introduction

(0:02:29) - Predicting the future

(0:05:16) - Getting Accurate Information

(0:06:20) - Potentials

(0:09:29) - Not using internal prediction markets

(0:11:04) - Doing the painful thing

(0:13:31) - Decision Making Process

(0:14:52) - Grugett’s opinion about insider trading

(0:16:23) - The Role of prediction market

(0:18:17) - Dealing with the Speculators

(0:20:33) - Criticism of Prediction Markets

(0:22:24) - The world when people cared about prediction markets

(0:26:10) - Grugett’s Profile Background/Experience

(0:28:49) - User Result Market

(0:30:17) - The most important mechanism

(0:32:59) - The 1000 manifold dollars

(0:40:30) - Efficient financial markets

(0:46:28) - Manifold Markets Job/Career Openings

(0:48:02) - Objectives of Manifold Markets

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