Understanding Adaptation Buffers: Navigating AI Advancement and Societal Impact

This week on Upstream, we’re releasing an episode of The Cognitive Revolution. Nathan Labenz interviews Helen Toner, director at CSET, about her experiences with OpenAI, the concept of adaptation buffers for AI integration, and AI's role in military decision-making. They discuss the implications of AI development, the need for regulatory policies, and the geopolitical dynamics involving AI competition with China.

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RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 

🎙️ ‪The Cognitive Revolution

The Cognitive Revolution is a podcast about AI where hosts Nathan Labenz and Erik Torenberg interview the builders on the edge of AI and explore the dramatic shift it will unlock over the next decades. 

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSyk?si=7357ec31ac424043&nd=1&dlsi=060a53f1d7be47ad  

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-cognitive-revolution-ai-builders-researchers-and/id1669813431 

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LINKS:

Helen Toner's appearance on the TED AI show: https://www.ted.com/talks/the_ted_ai_show_what_really_went_down_at_openai_and_the_future_of_regulation_w_helen_toner 

Helen Toner's substack : https://helentoner.substack.com/ 

Additional recommended reads:

https://helentoner.substack.com/p/nonproliferation-is-the-wrong-approach 

https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/ai-for-military-decision-making/

https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/ai-regulation-s-champions-can-seize-common-ground-or-be-swept-aside 

https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/05/26/ai-firms-mustnt-govern-themselves-say-ex-members-of-openais-board

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X / TWITTER:

@hlntnr

@labenz

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

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HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:

• Helen Toner joined OpenAI's board in 2021, bringing AI policy expertise when AGI discussions were still uncommon.
• She confirms that rumors about QStar contributing to the board's decision to fire Sam Altman were completely false.
• Helen observes contradictions at OpenAI: safety-focused research papers alongside aggressive policy positions.
• For AI whistleblowers, she recommends clear disclosure standards rather than vague reporting guidelines.
• Helen introduced the concept of "adaptation buffers," noting that while frontier AI development gets more expensive, capabilities become cheaper to replicate once achieved.
• Rather than focusing on non-proliferation, Helen advocates using adaptation time to build societal resilience (like improving outbreak detection).
• She favors conditional slowdowns (based on risk mitigation) rather than arbitrary pauses or compute limits.
• For military AI applications, Helen's research identifies three key considerations: scope (how tightly bound the system is), data quality, and human-machine interaction design.
• Helen expresses skepticism about "AI war simulations," arguing military contexts have too many unknowns to be modeled like games.
• She suggests the shift in AI CEOs' rhetoric about China competition is "the path of least resistance" to argue against regulation.
• Helen acknowledges the difficulty of reaching stable international equilibrium around AI development with too many unknowns about what superintelligence would mean for political systems.