Explaining Poll Variation and Youth Turnout

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Happy Election Day! Last night Nate Silver, Clare Malone and I gathered with a sold-out crowd at the Comedy Cellar in New York City to share out final pre-election takes, discuss the latest political controversies and take on audience members in a game of “Guess What Americans Think.”

We discussed the wildly divergent polls in the New York City mayoral race, how we expect the results to play into the Democrats 2024 post-mortem, and what it could mean for national politics if New York City has a Democratic Socialist mayor.

In a round of “Hot Take Hat,” we discussed the demolition of the East Wing, Graham Platner’s Nazi tattoo, Trump’s suggestion that the Senate scrap the filibuster, and more.

During “Guess What Americans Think,” Nate and Clare competed against the audience to gauge how Americans feel about topics like the government shutdown, the National Guard in American cities, and the amount of money being wagered on political betting sites in the 2025 elections. We also answered incisive questions from the audience.

Remember to tune in to the GD POLITICS livestream of election night beginning at 7 pm ET at gdpolitics.com.