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5min chapter
Robin Hanson: How Global Elites Manufactured Stagnation and How We Escape
From the New World
What Happens if Someone Attempts to Manipulate the Market?
In a prediction market, if you add people who are trying to influence an outcome, the accuracy of your estimates goes up. This is true even in markets that have been designed to resist manipulation. In ordinary financial markets, there's two kinds of traders: noise traders and informed traders. If you're an informed trade against the noise trader, i'm sorry, you want to trade against the information suggesting you should do something different.
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