Navigating Economic Uncertainty in Canada

Today we were delighted to welcome the Honorable Lisa Raitt, Vice-Chair of Global Investment Banking at CIBC, for an insightful discussion focused on the implications of recent U.S.-Canada trade developments. Lisa joined CIBC Capital Markets in 2020 following an eleven-year tenure in the Government of Canada. Her distinguished career includes serving as Deputy Leader of the Official Opposition and the Conservative Party of Canada, as well as serving as Minister of Natural Resources, Minister of Labor, and Minister of Transport. We were thrilled to host Lisa and hear her valuable perspective on the evolving trade dynamics between the U.S. and Canada.
 
In our conversation, we explore the Canadian view on President Trump’s recent comments regarding tariffs and Canada’s auto manufacturing industry, along with the broader implications for U.S.-Canada trade relations. We discuss Canada’s political landscape, including Prime Minister Trudeau’s decision to step down after losing party support, the Conservative Party’s growing momentum under Pierre Poilievre, and Canada’s economic challenges and growth concerns. We touch on the unifying effect trade tensions have had on Canadian political and business communities, the potential for retaliatory measures, the need for more power generation, transmission, and distribution to support Canada’s economic growth, and intra-Canada trade complications that impact Canada’s competitiveness. Lisa provides insight into the impact of the Canadian dollar and interest rates, how currency fluctuations affect key sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, and sports, the deep economic and familial ties between the U.S. and Canada, whether ongoing trade disputes could fundamentally alter the relationship between the two countries, and more. We are very thankful to Lisa for sharing her time and perspective.
 
Mike Bradley started off the show by highlighting that President Trump’s new tariffs and tariff threats are increasing volatility, but that for the most part, bond and equity markets have been moving sideways. He noted January CPI & PPI will be reported over the next two days which could create added market volatility for bonds and equities. If both inflation reports print cooler-than expected, it will likely lead to intensifying pressure from Trump for the FED to cut interest rates at the March FOMC Meeting. On the crude oil market front, WTI price has rallied this week to ~$73/bbl and crude oil time spreads are pointing to a physically tight oil market. Oil price continues to be impacted by on/off tariff threats and continued OPEC production curtailments but was aided this week on news that Russian oil exports are being impacted by tighter Russian oil sanctions. On the natural gas front, U.S. natural gas prompt price has rebounded to ~$3.50/MMBtu on colder weather and the 12-month natural gas strip is now trading above $4.00/MMBtu. BP indicated on their Q4 call that at current U.S natural gas prices, they were contemplating picking up gas rigs “now” which is a new development. He also noted that European natural gas price was trading at ~$17/MMBtu (~$100/bbl oil equivalent) because European gas storage is draining faster than expected due to colder winter weather and poor renewable performance/utilization. He ended by flagging Equinor’s recent strategy shift (significant reduction in renewables capex thru 2030) and also noted that BP is calling for a “fundamental reset” of their strategy at their Capital Markets Day (Feb 26th). Robert Kester added his thoughts on AI’s dominance in global discourse, highlighting this week’s high-profile AI Summit in Paris and different global approaches to AI, including the U.S.’s free-market stance, Europe’s push for regulation, and China’s state-backed AI expansion.
 
We hope you all enjoy the discussion with Lisa as much as we did. Our best to you all – and to our friends up north, let’s work this out, eh!