2min chapter

GoodFellows: Conversations from the Hoover Institution cover image

Three Good Fellows and Not Enough Babies: A Conversation with Demographer Nicolas Eberstadt | GoodFellows: John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, H. R. McMaster | Hoover Institution

GoodFellows: Conversations from the Hoover Institution

CHAPTER

What Is the Best Predictor of Fertility?

The best predictor for fertility was how many children women said that they want it to be. It turns out to be really good across ethnicities across populations across societies, he says. In low income countries, even in countries where people are illiterate, and there's a lot of rural living, you can have a voluntary below replacement child bearing regimen now like Myanmar or Burma. I mean, it's just like the counter example to all of the modernization theory stuff,you know.

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