Who Predicted 2022?
Astral Codex Ten Podcast
00:00
Predictions - The Year of the Forecaster
Last year, superforecaster aggregation beat 97% of individual predictors. This finding has been replicated in other experiments too. By running a simple algorithm on the data I have, I can beat 3400 of these 3500 participants. Or maybe the prediction market results will hold. One market, manifold, and another market like site, metaculous, are joining the contest this year. If things go very well, maybe we'll discover new ways of aggregating their results that can beat every individual predictor - at least most of the time.
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