Hindsight Bias in Decision Making

The tendency to revise the history of one's beliefs in light of what actually happened produces a robust cognitive illusion. Hind sight bias has pernicious effect on the evaluations of decision makers. We are prone to blame decision makers for good decisions that worked out badly, and to give them too little credit for successful moves that appear obvious only after the fact. This outcome bias makes it almost impossible to evaluate a decision properly in terms of the beliefs that were reasonable when the decision was made.