Consolidation in Prediction Markets

In this Crypto 101 Podcast episode, Tevo, Brian, and Joe tackle one of Bitcoin’s most volatile weeks, analyzing extreme fear, historic drawdowns, and market capitulation signals. They emphasize that despite short-term panic, fundamentals remain intact — with institutions, states like New Hampshire, and ETF providers continuing to build and accumulate. The discussion covers algorithmic trading pressure, overleveraged markets, and the “fastest bear market ever,” suggesting a rebound could be near. The team closes on a hopeful note, spotlighting Solana ETF inflows and reminding listeners that “nothing has changed with Bitcoin’s fundamentals.

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Chapters

00:00 — Intro: market volatility, community strength, and setup for the Bitcoin decline discussion.

05:57 — Chart breakdown: historical Bitcoin drawdowns and perspective on volatility.

09:16 — Bitcoin capitulation: 99% of short-term holders in loss; realized losses hit FTX-collapse levels.

11:38 — Fear & Greed Index near record lows; extreme fear signals potential market bottom.

16:17 — Macro overview: algorithmic trading, lack of clear recovery catalyst, and market overreactions.

18:01 — Joe’s macro take: leverage, AI bubble parallels, and retail vs institutional behavior.

19:19 — RSI analysis: oversold levels similar to COVID and FTX lows, signaling possible bottom.

23:46 — “Bitcoin is dead” chart discussion; Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan’s upcoming interview teased.

24:50 — Positive news: New Hampshire launches first Bitcoin-backed municipal bond.

26:59 — Institutional adoption: Solana ETFs see 17 straight days of inflows despite price decline.

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