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Matt Yglesias on the election, Substack success and the great unbundling

Channels with Peter Kafka

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Polling Precision and Political Strategies

This chapter explores the intricacies of polling accuracy in political elections, with a spotlight on the unique challenges of gauging Trump voter sentiment. It discusses the impact of declining response rates and potential biases in polling, alongside alternative methods like prediction markets. Additionally, the conversation touches on how accurate polling shapes campaign strategies and outcomes, particularly in tightly contested races.

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