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#424 - Steven Pinker - The Problem With Trying To Be Rational
Modern Wisdom
Forecasting
The way basian reasoning enters into accurate forecasting is the first thing you start off with. Good forecasters tend not to be your name brand pundits, whotend to have a pretty crummy track record. They are always pushing their political ideology, and it blinds them to the specifics ofsitt but i do use ba as one of its essential ingredients.
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