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2min chapter
Simeon Campos on Short Timelines, AI Governance and AI Alignment Field Building
The Inside View
The 90% Chance of Not Having AJ
The biases like cognitive biases that you need to include in your mental model of how you should predict things are not symmetric so if I tell you what is the 90% chance of not having AJ yeah that looks more like 2023 but I think it's more 2024 okay. Hopefully after this podcast we'll be able to bet at one to 10 odds with a lot of people and maybe make some money I hope no because if you make money then he's gonna be like yeah if you win then he's like I wish I don't do it Do you think there's any way to extract money from having short timelines just like investing in stocks probably if you were super confident would take huge
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