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Decision-Making Under Uncertainty and Entrepreneurship (with Miles Lasater)
Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg
Using Monte Carlo Simulations to Decompose the Probability of a and B
If you have two variables and you want to know what's the probability of both of them happening, one way to decompose it mathematically is to say it's the probabilityof A times the probability of B given A. And then if we say there's a 5% chance of rain, that might be just saying there's 5% of the time in our simulations it rained. Right. I think also how this tool can be used or this kind of thinking can be used that's really interesting is telling you where you have existing uncertainty. You might invest in learning about the market sizing, but you might realize from the Monte Carlo simulation that even if you get half of the uncertainty on
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