Using Monte Carlo Simulations to Decompose the Probability of a and B

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If you have two variables and you want to know what's the probability of both of them happening, one way to decompose it mathematically is to say it's the probabilityof A times the probability of B given A. And then if we say there's a 5% chance of rain, that might be just saying there's 5% of the time in our simulations it rained. Right. I think also how this tool can be used or this kind of thinking can be used that's really interesting is telling you where you have existing uncertainty. You might invest in learning about the market sizing, but you might realize from the Monte Carlo simulation that even if you get half of the uncertainty on

How can we better make decisions under uncertainty? What are some of the different ways of being uncertain? What are some powerful venture patterns? How can founders and venture capitalists reduce risk in their startups and portfolios? What is the nature of innovation? How can investing be used to do good in the world?

Miles Lasater has started 3 companies, 2 nonprofits, and 1 family with 4 kids. He has been a founder, VC, angel investor, business school professor, board member, donor, improv comedian, and dancer. He currently is Founding Partner of Purpose Built Ventures and serves on the board of tech nonprofit Curious Learning. Miles also hosts a podcast called Startups for Good (which you can also follow on Twitter at @startups4good). Find out more at mileslasater.com.

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