How to Calculate the Expected Value of a Course of Action

When you make a decision, whether you're doing it explicitly or not, you are making these types of forecasts. It's about thinking explicitly about what path is going to be more likely to help you achieve your goals given what you know at the moment. You can ask other people about it and they can help give their perspective. When you do this, you can actually write those things down. And then as the world unfolds as it does, it makes it a little bit easier to close the feedback loops that would help you then learn - because you can see what was I thinking at the time.