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Four: Spencer Greenberg on the scientific approach to solving difficult everyday questions
Effective Altruism: An Introduction – 80,000 Hours
Predicting the Future With Models and Theories
i think it's really important to understand, as the famous qte says, all models are wrong. Some models are useful, and every model is limited in the sense that it will sometimesmake mispredictions. But just also know that if you'rein certain situation, it's not going to work as well. Another thing i think about models that can be really valuable to think about is that trying to form your own models is really valuable. If you only have an intuitive model, it's very, very hard to give it to anyone else. Once you haveit more explicit, you can share it with the world and help other people have more accurate predictions.
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