Price vs Fundamentals: The Longer View

The Last Trade: Morgan Stanley’s ETF filing and Bank of America’s allocation guidance mark a shift in Bitcoin’s market structure. We discuss institutional flows, the limits of cycle models, and why custody risk is becoming central to adoption.

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🎙️ About This Episode

In the first Last Trade of 2026, we unpack why Morgan Stanley’s ETF filing and Bank of America’s advisor rollout are major signals of Bitcoin’s institutional maturation. We discuss how shifting access and solicitation may reshape the cycle debate, why fundamentals can strengthen even when price chops, and what it means that Bitcoin settled roughly $25T in value in 2025.

We also explore the rise of “long degeneracy” as a symptom of broken incentives, then close on the part of adoption most people avoid: custody risk. As Bitcoin’s value grows, so does the incentive for attacks and concentration failures, which is why market structure and resilient custody models matter more than ever.

The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.

🧠 Chapters

00:00 — Why This Year Feels Different for Bitcoin

02:05 — Morgan Stanley’s ETF Filing & Institutional Demand

11:30 — Sentiment vs. Fundamentals: 2026 Bitcoin Setup

21:34 — Degeneracy, Nihilism, Work, & Money

34:12 — Agency, AI, & the Future of Wealth Creation

37:14 — Dead Internet, Slop, & the Return to Analog Signal

39:22 — Running It Hot: AI, Growth Narratives, & Asset Inflation

43:09 — Fraud, GDP, & the Trust Breakdown

49:43 — Institutional Trust Erosion & Market Consequences

53:17 — Mimetic Momentum: What Ignites the Next Reflexive Move

01:04:10 — Gold vs. Bitcoin: Wealth Effects & the Broken Denominator

01:07:56 — Custody Risk Comes Into Focus

01:22:16 — Market Structure, Custody, & Bitcoin’s Path Forward

01:27:08 — Outro & Disclaimer

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