Echoes of 1919: How Underestimating the PLA After Tiananmen Created a Strategic Failure. Jim Fanell and Brad Thayer connect the current geopolitical threat posed by the PLA Navy to past strategic failures, drawing an analogy to the British Empire's "10-year rule" instituted in 1919. The US made a similar miscalculation regarding China after the brutal Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989, as the US Navy and Pacific Command did not perceive any threat from the PRC. Fanell, who worked at the US Joint Intelligence Center Pacific from 1989 to 1991, confirms that intelligence focused on the Soviet threat, and China did not become a priority until around 2014 or 2015. Following Tiananmen, the US should have highlighted the Chinese Communist Party as a "sadistic monster," but instead the George H.W. Bush administration rushed to repair the relationship. Thayer emphasizes that US leaders in 1989 had a great understanding of communism's evils, but this understanding has since faded, and China is now incorrectly viewed as a capitalist state. Deng Xiaoping learned from Tiananmen and the Soviet collapse, focusing on economic reform while establishing a relationship of dependence between US business and the CCP.
