The John Batchelor Show 44: Echoes of 1919: How Underestimating the PLA After Tiananmen Created a Strategic Failure. Jim Fanell and Brad Thayer connect the current geopolitical threat posed by the PLA Navy to past strategic failures, drawing an analogy to the British Empire's "10-ye
Nov 1, 2025
In this engaging discussion, Jim Fanell, a former U.S. naval intelligence officer, and Brad Thayer, a scholar on historical policy decisions, explore the alarming underestimation of the PLA Navy since Tiananmen. They draw parallels between the British Empire's strategic errors in the early 20th century and today’s U.S. policies toward China. Fanell reveals the intelligence community's focus on the Soviet threat at the time, while Thayer critiques the U.S. response that prioritized relations over confronting the CCP's true nature.
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Cost Of Strategic Complacency
- The British '10-year rule' led planners to underinvest in defense and the industrial base after 1919.
- That complacency contributed to inadequate preparedness by 1939–1940.
Watch Floor Memory From 1989–91
- Jim Fanell recounts that US Pacific Command and the Navy saw no Chinese threat after Tiananmen.
- He describes watch floors where China monitoring had almost no activity while the Soviet threat dominated.
Late Recognition Of PLA Buildup
- China only became a prioritized strategic concern for the U.S. around 2014–2015.
- Early indicators of PLA naval modernization appeared in 1999–2000 but were not acted on decisively.
