THINKING FAST AND SLOW - Commented Book
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The Importance of Unbiased Predictions in Venture Capitalists
If you expect your predictions to be of modest validity, you will never guess an outcome that is either rare or far from the mean. For a rational person, predictions that are unbiased and moderate should not present a problem. But there are situations in which one type of error is much worse than another. The goal of venture capitalists is to call the extreme cases correctly, even at the cost of overestimating the prospects of many other ventures.
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