How to Calculate the Probability of Near Misses of Asteroids

Asteroids are a much more well defined, physically, well defined phenomenon that we can extrapolate up. We could treat smaller asteroids hitting the earth as near misses for larger asteroids. And similarly, that could happen witha things like a pandemics were maybe in some waysthe the current pandemic is is a near miss, or a warning shot,. For a bigger pandemic, t that could actually pose an axitential threat.