THINKING FAST AND SLOW - Commented Book
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Hindsight and the Outcome Bias
In the case of a catastrophe such as nine 11, we are especially ready to believe that officials who failed to anticipate it were negligent or blind. The worse the consequence, the greater the hind sight bias. Leaders who have been lucky are never punished for having taken too much risk. Instead, they are believed to have had the flare and foresight to anticipate success.
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