The Illusion of Validity, Part Hindsight and Part Halo Effect

This is an outcome bias, part hindsight and part halo effect. Let's not fall for the outcome bias. This was a stupid decision, even though it worked out well. For some of our most important beliefs, we have no evidence at all, except that people we love and trust hold these beliefs. Counts because of confidence. By coherence, the subjective confidence we have in our opinions reflects the coherence of the story that system one and two have constructed. The amount of evidence and its quality do not count for much,. Poor evidence can make a very good story.