Is There a Reliability Test for Predictions of Fertility?

The UN assumes that Israel's fertility rate will recover from its current very low level sort of half the replacement rate, but I keep asking myself what on the basis of past experience would cause such an increase. Can you give us an answer to that? Well, Neil, I don't want to give away the secrets of the guild, but as you probably know those long term projections since nobody actually has ever come up with a reliable method for forecasts of fertility for any population where there's human volition over the kind of a long run. So there's no, there's no theory in there. It's just a kind of a temperature you might say. What would do it in the real