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THINKING FAST AND SLOW - Commented Book
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How to Discipline Intuition
Some people follow their intuition because they do not know that base rate information should be combined with individual information. The second sin of representativeness is insensitivity to the quality of evidence. Your probability that it will rain to morrow is your subjective degree of belief, but you should not let yourself automatically believe anything you like. To be useful, your beliefs sould be constrained by the logic of probability.
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