Position Sizing and the Kelly-Inspired Approach

I had the pleasure of co-hosting another episode of Excess Returns with Matt Zeigler. We sat down with the one and only Tobias Carlisle — investor, author, podcast host, and all-around fascinating mind whose writing and ideas have influenced my thinking at various times.

He discusses his new book, which made me see Buffett’s investment approach in an entirely new light — and you’re about to discover why. I highly recommend both this episode and Toby’s book.

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Tobias Carlisle, founder and portfolio manager at the Acquirers Fund and author of the new book “Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett’s Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk Taking.”

Tobias joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explore how timeless strategic principles from The Art of War apply to investing and how Warren Buffett embodies many of those ideas—from invincibility and victory without conflict to the disciplined avoidance of ruin. The conversation connects Buffett’s real-world decisions—from Apple to General Re to Japan’s trading houses—to broader lessons on temperament, risk, and wisdom in markets.

Available now on Excess Returns Podcast and Talking Billions. 🎧

I’m excited to share this episode with you—it’s reposted here with permission and blessing from both Matt and Jack. Don’t miss it! And follow their work, links below.

Main Topics Covered

• The three key ideas from The Art of War that define Buffett’s approach: invincibility, victory without conflict, and unassailable strength

• Why Buffett’s General Re acquisition was a misunderstood masterstroke in defensive investing

• How Buffett achieved “victory without conflict” through his massive Apple investment

• The principle of via negativa — succeeding by avoiding mistakes and ruin

• Temperament vs. intellect and the psychology of avoiding self-defeat

• Circle of competence and why simplicity often beats complexity

• Sins of omission vs. sins of commission in investing decisions

• How Buffett applies wu wei (effortless action) through patience and alignment with natural forces

• Lessons from Buffett’s Japanese trading house investments and moral law in business

• The role of reputation, intuition (coup d’œil), and character in long-term investing

• Charlie Munger’s blueprint and the strategic architecture of Berkshire Hathaway

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— everything Matt Zeigler.

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Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.

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