Fall-Through Rates, Price Changes, and Overvaluing

UK Property Market Weekly Update - Week 43, 2025 Myself and Alice Bullard, boss lady of Nested, look at the UK property market for the week ending Sunday 2nd October 2025. ✅ New Listings * 27.5k new properties came to market this week, down as expected from 29.3k last week. * 2025 weekly average: 35.6k. * Nine year week 43 average :29.1k * Year-to-date (YTD): 1.53m new listings, 1.5% higher than 2024 YTD (1.51m) and 9.1% above the 2017–19 average (1.40m) ✅ Price Reductions * 18.3k reductions this week, lower as expected, than last week’s at 21.3k. * Increase in the number of homes on the market being reduced in September to 14.1% (these stats are always done a month in arrears). In August, it was 11.1% (everyone must have been on holiday!), whilst it was 14.1% in July and 14% in June. (October figures to follow next week) * 2025 average so far: 13.2%, versus the five-year long-term average of 10.74%. ✅ Sales Agreed * 23.5k homes sold subject to contract this week, down as expected from 24.2k last week. * Week 43 average (for last 9 years) :23.8k * 2025 weekly average : 26k. * YTD: 1.116m gross sales, which is 4.2% ahead of 2024 (1.071m) and 12.5% above the 2017–19 average (992k). ✅ Price Diff between Listings & Sales * Average Asking Price of listings last week £398k vs Average asking price of Sales Agreed (SSTC) - £358k - a 11.2% difference (long term 9 year average is 16% to 17%)… * The average listing price has dropped from £452k in Sept to £415k in October.. ie fewer expensive homes being listed ✅ Sell-Through Rate * 14.1% of homes on agents’ books went SSTC in September. (October figures to follow in November) * Down from 14.5% in Aug, 15.4% in July, 15.3% in June, and 16.1% in May. * Pre-Covid average: 15.5%. ✅ Fall-Throughs * 5,278 fall-throughs last week (pipeline of 510k home Sold STC). * Weekly average for 2025: 6,181. * Fall-through rate: 24.2%, slightly down from 24.3% last week. * Long-term average: 24.2% (post-Truss chaos saw levels exceed 40%). ✅ Net Sales * 18.2k net sales this week, down (as expected) from 18.3k last week. * Nine-year Week 43 average: 17.9k. * Weekly average for 2025: 19.8k. * YTD: 850k, which is 3.6% ahead of 2024 (821k) and 9.5% above 2017–19 (776k). ✅ Probability of Selling (% that Exchange vs withdrawal) * Final September Stats : 53.1% of homes that left agents’ books exchanged & completed in September. October ones to follow next week * August :55.8% / July: 50.9% / June: 51.3% / May: 51.7% / April: 53.2%. ✅ Stock Levels * 751k homes on the market at the start of October, 4% higher than October 2024. (723k) * 510k homes in sales pipeline on the 1st October, 2% higher than 12 months ago.