The Fed cuts rates, and mortgage rates go up. Then they do it again, and rates…go back up. How does this keep happening? Has the Fed lost complete control over mortgage rates?

The Fed has now cut rates twice in 2025, and we’re hovering around the same (if not slightly higher) mortgage rates as before the first cut. After last week’s rate cut announcement, investors were surprised to see that mortgages—once again—got even more expensive. But it’s not because of what the Fed did—it was because of what they said, potentially foreshadowing a slower, longer path back to 5% mortgage rates.

Dave is on to explain why mortgage rates moved in the opposite direction, why we could be stuck with higher mortgage rates for longer, and the two things that need to happen for mortgage rates to break back into the 5% range. Plus, he’ll share three realistic scenarios that could cause rates to move in different directions and what could trigger each.