Intro

In this episode of Excess Returns, Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau to walk through her technical outlook for markets as we head into 2026. The conversation focuses on trend analysis, momentum, volatility, and risk management across U.S. equities, sectors, international markets, and alternative assets. Rather than making predictions, Katie explains how she reacts to price, confirms signals, and uses a disciplined technical process to identify opportunities and manage downside risk in changing market environments.

Main topics covered
Market trend outlook for U.S. equities heading into 2026
Why long-term trends remain constructive despite rising short-term risks
How to think about volatility, consolidation, and corrective phases
What loss of momentum in late 2025 signals for near-term positioning
How to use triangle formations, support, and resistance levels
Understanding DeMark indicators, MACD, and stochastic signals
Leadership shifts within large-cap technology and the Mag 7
Growth versus value dynamics across market caps
Small caps, market breadth, and participation signals
Sector rotation insights including technology, healthcare, financials, energy, utilities, and real estate
How sentiment indicators like fear and greed fit into a broader process
Gold, silver, and precious metals trends and volatility
Bitcoin and crypto from a technical perspective
The U.S. dollar, yields, and global market implications
International and emerging market opportunities
How the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF is constructed and used in portfolios
Where a tactical, risk-managed strategy can fit within asset allocation

Timestamps
00:00 Market setup and trend perspective for 2026
01:25 Long-term uptrend versus short-term risk
04:16 Momentum loss and near-term caution
06:00 Nasdaq 100 triangle and volatility setup
07:45 Ichimoku clouds and trend confirmation
11:01 Using consolidation and support levels
13:05 Tech leadership and relative strength shifts
18:30 Small caps, breadth, and market participation
21:01 Growth versus value across market caps
23:00 Market breadth and advance-decline signals
24:13 Sentiment, fear and greed, and retests
30:00 Breakouts, catalysts, and confirmation
32:00 Sector rotation overview
35:00 Energy, real estate, and rate-sensitive sectors
39:10 Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF strategy
45:00 International and emerging markets
47:36 Gold, silver, and precious metals
51:04 U.S. dollar and currency trends
54:00 Bitcoin and crypto technical outlook
57:12 Key indicators to watch going forward
59:07 Long-term takeaways for investors