When i was younger, i thought he was absolutely hilarious and brilliant. The thread of terrorism, do we overrate it or underrate it in the united states? That's a very difficult question because of the tail risk aspect to it. I did see myself coming back just very recentlyt last week, and in the quarantine period out the west world. It's not a movie, si a series,. But i think that i's quite, quite i think the first two seasons were quite, quite brilliant on historical counter factuals....
Accuracy is only one of the things we want from forecasters, says Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. People also look to forecasters for ideological assurance, entertainment, and to minimize regret–such as that caused by not taking a global pandemic seriously enough. The best forecasters aren’t just intelligent, but fox-like integrative thinkers capable of navigating values that are conflicting or in tension.
He joined Tyler to discuss whether the world as a whole is becoming harder to predict, whether Goldman Sachs traders can beat forecasters, what inferences we can draw from analyzing the speech of politicians, the importance of interdisciplinary teams, the qualities he looks for in leaders, the reasons he’s skeptical machine learning will outcompete his research team, the year he thinks the ascent of the West became inevitable, how research on counterfactuals can be applied to modern debates, why people with second cultures tend to make better forecasters, how to become more fox-like, and more.
Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links, or watch the full video.
Recorded March 26th, 2020 Other ways to connect